The transition towards the fully operational Copernicus atmospheric services requires the implementation of operational productions chains for the provision of services and products of interest for both public and private user sectors. The concept of air-quality assessment reports has been successfully developed in the first stage of the Copernicus atmosphere services implementation within the R-EVA sub-project of MACC. In MACC-II, the objectives of the EVA sub-project are the development and implementation of the operational process dedicated to the yearly production of European air quality assessment reports. These reports will be based on the MACC-II assimilation and modelling capacities, and will provide the state and evolution of background concentrations of air pollutants in Europe, according to a number of indicators relevant for policy use (regulatory indicators) and impact assessment (health and ecosystems exposure oriented). Validated observational and modelling data will be combined in reanalysed maps and numerical fields, to propose the "best available" represntation of air pollutant concentration fields for a given spatial resolution. Moreover, validation model analysis will be performed and reported to users to assess the MACC-II regional chemistry transport models' skills and performance, and their uncertainity.
MACC-II EVA is the straightforward folow-on to the R-EVA sub-project in MACC, with substantial improvements of the service:
Consequently the ovrall objective of this sub-project is to implement operational modelling chains in several air-quality modelling centres with the most robust and sophisticated models and data assimilation methodologies, for simulating realistic air quality patterns in Europe in a delayed mode. Gathering and using these model results on a common platform (the MACC-EVA platform) to build up "ensemble" products will allow high quality results with associated uncertainties to be obtained.
The ambition of the EVA strategy is to build up an operational regional air-quality reanalysis production process over Europe. Seven regional state-of-the-art compliant air quality models that run within the MACC prototype operational process and are proving their capacities and operationality, are involved in the service production. Each modelling team is responsible for upgrading model capacity and for the quality of the results this provides.
Therefore, the EVA service will include both innovation and operational production aspects to fulfil its objectives with the most updated data and technologies. An increasing amount of available observation data is expected up to 2015, especially through the Copernicus in situ and satellite data coordination. The wealth of data currently available and expected in the near future should be considered in the operational products as they go along. Moreover, the continuous improvement of models and data-assimilation techniques (including ensemble approaches) will be taken into account for an overall improvement of the EVA products. R&D issues will be covered by each involved modelling team for:
Beyond the yearly production, with the availability of a number of reanalysed years (since 2007 with MACC) further policy-related studies related to the evolution of air pollution in Europe will be proposed. In particular, it will become possible to carry out trend analysis of regulatory air-pollutant concentrations according to the evolution of emissions.
In parallel, a large part of the effort of the EVA partners will be allocated to the operational production of the reanalyses and to their dissemination to users. An editorial Committee agreeing on the content of the yearly reports where it needs to be updated (choice of significant episodes to be investigated, new indicators,..) will be implemented. A strategy for promotion and communication will be developed especially towards the private and associated spheres (consultancy companies, NGO, ...)
Strong interactions with almost all the other MACC-II sub-projecvts exist:
In the yearly assessment reports, special care will be given to pollutants characterised by the influence of long range transport, correctly caught by European-scale modelling: ozone, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter (PM(10) and PM(2.5). Comparison between the different periods will help in describing seasonal dependance and the effect of current regulatory emission reductions.
To acheive EVA's objectives, the sub-project is divided into four work packages:
Figure 12 illustrates how the EVA work packages are set-up for the provision of the European air-quality assessment and validation reports.
Figure 12 EVA sub-project set-up and time line for one year of production
Figuer 13 shows how the various linkages with the other MACC-II sub-projects are organised. EVA gets and needs strong relationships with almost all the sub-projects that provide either input data (emissions, global boundary conditions, observations) or methodological framework (ENS, EDA, INT, VAL).
Figure 13 EVA sub-project interlinkages with the other MACC-II sub-projects